Example NBA Signal Card

Informational analysis — no betting instructions

Date
Dec 28–29, 2025
Market
Moneyline (H2H)
Book Reference
FanDuel
Edge Rows (Full Output)
Row-level model vs market fields for each side. Raw/verbose view with all calculated metrics.
TeamOpponentDateMoneylineModel Win%Implied%Edge (pp)ROI%EVHome/AwayRest DaysB2BPace FactorDef Rating
Washington WizardsAtlanta HawksDec 28+23038.1%30.3%+7.8+25.8%+0.983Away1No102.3118.2
Atlanta HawksWashington WizardsDec 28-28061.9%73.7%-11.8-16.0%-0.448Home2No99.8115.6
Charlotte HornetsIndiana PacersDec 28+18542.7%35.1%+7.6+21.7%+0.762Away2No104.1116.9
Indiana PacersCharlotte HornetsDec 28-22557.3%69.2%-11.9-17.2%-0.387Home1No106.7114.3
Detroit PistonsChicago BullsDec 28+21039.5%32.3%+7.2+22.3%+0.720Away1No101.5117.8
Chicago BullsDetroit PistonsDec 28-25560.5%71.8%-11.3-15.7%-0.401Home2No98.9113.2
Portland Trail Blaze...Utah JazzDec 28+16541.2%37.7%+3.5+9.3%+0.153Away1Yes103.2119.1
Utah JazzPortland Trail Blaze...Dec 28-20058.8%66.7%-7.9-11.8%-0.236Home2No100.4115.8
San Antonio SpursGolden State Warrior...Dec 28+14543.8%40.8%+3.0+7.4%+0.107Away1No105.6116.4
Golden State Warrior...San Antonio SpursDec 28-17556.2%63.6%-7.4-11.6%-0.203Home2No102.8112.9

Scroll horizontally to view all columns. Hover over truncated values to see full content.

Game Summary - Best Side Per Matchup
One row per matchup highlighting the side with the highest expected value
Date (ET)MatchupBest SidePriceModel Win%Implied%Edge (pp)ROI%
Dec 28, 7:00 PM
Washington Wizards@ Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards+23038.1%30.3%+7.8+25.8%
Dec 28, 7:30 PM
Charlotte Hornets@ Indiana Pacers
Charlotte Hornets+18542.7%35.1%+7.6+21.7%
Dec 28, 8:00 PM
Detroit Pistons@ Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons+21039.5%32.3%+7.2+22.3%
Dec 28, 9:00 PM
Portland Trail Blazers@ Utah Jazz
Portland Trail Blazers+16541.2%37.7%+3.5+9.3%
Dec 28, 10:00 PM
San Antonio Spurs@ Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs+14543.8%40.8%+3.0+7.4%
Dec 29, 6:00 PM
Brooklyn Nets@ Philadelphia 76ers
Brooklyn Nets+12545.5%44.4%+1.1+2.5%
Dec 29, 7:00 PM
Orlando Magic@ Miami Heat
Orlando Magic+13543.2%42.6%+0.6+1.4%

Daily Moneyline Model Signal Card

Picks organized by signal strength. Higher edge values indicate greater model divergence from market prices.

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Strong Model Value Signals

Washington Wizards+230
Model Win
38.1%
Implied
30.3%
Edge
+7.8 pp
Implied EV
+25.8%

High-variance outcome with significant model edge. Market may be undervaluing recent defensive improvements.

Charlotte Hornets+185
Model Win
42.7%
Implied
35.1%
Edge
+7.6 pp
Implied EV
+21.7%

Model identifies home court advantage not fully priced in. Key player availability confirmed.

Detroit Pistons+210
Model Win
39.5%
Implied
32.3%
Edge
+7.2 pp
Implied EV
+22.3%

Pace and style matchup favors underdog. Historical head-to-head suggests closer contest.

⭐⭐⭐ Moderate Model Value Signals

Portland Trail Blazers+165
Model Win
41.2%
Implied
37.7%
Edge
+3.5 pp
Implied EV
+9.3%

Modest edge with lower variance. Market pricing appears efficient but model sees slight value.

San Antonio Spurs+145
Model Win
43.8%
Implied
40.8%
Edge
+3.0 pp
Implied EV
+7.4%

Young roster showing improvement. Model factors in recent form not yet reflected in lines.

⭐⭐ Thin Model Value Signals (Low Priority)

Brooklyn Nets+125
Model Win
45.5%
Implied
44.4%
Edge
+1.1 pp
Implied EV
+2.5%

Minimal edge. Market pricing is largely efficient. Included for completeness only.

Orlando Magic+135
Model Win
43.2%
Implied
42.6%
Edge
+0.6 pp
Implied EV
+1.4%

Very thin edge. Consider this informational rather than actionable.

🚫 Model Flags: Negative Expected Value at Current Prices

The model does not identify positive expected value on these sides at current market prices. Informational only—not recommendations to bet the opposite side.

Los Angeles Lakers (-280)
Boston Celtics (-320)
Milwaukee Bucks (-245)
Phoenix Suns (-190)
Denver Nuggets (-265)

Important Disclosure

All content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. EVZebra does not provide betting advice, wagering instructions, or financial guarantees. Sports outcomes are uncertain, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions and actions. Please gamble responsibly.

Understanding the Metrics

Model Win%

The probability of winning estimated by our statistical model, based on historical data, team performance, and matchup factors.

Implied%

The probability implied by the current market price (moneyline). Calculated by converting odds to a percentage.

Edge (pp)

The difference between Model Win% and Implied%, measured in percentage points. Positive edge indicates the model sees more value than the market price suggests.

Expected Value (EV)

The theoretical return on investment if this bet were repeated many times. Positive EV suggests long-term profitability under the model's assumptions.

Educational Purpose Only

This example card demonstrates how EVZebra presents model vs market analysis. All metrics are for educational purposes to help you understand expected value concepts. This is not betting advice, and we make no guarantees about accuracy or outcomes. Sports results are uncertain, and models are imperfect tools.