Example NBA Signal Card
Informational analysis — no betting instructions
| Team | Opponent | Date | Moneyline | Model Win% | Implied% | Edge (pp) | ROI% | EV | Home/Away | Rest Days | B2B | Pace Factor | Def Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | Atlanta Hawks | Dec 28 | +230 | 38.1% | 30.3% | +7.8 | +25.8% | +0.983 | Away | 1 | No | 102.3 | 118.2 |
| Atlanta Hawks | Washington Wizards | Dec 28 | -280 | 61.9% | 73.7% | -11.8 | -16.0% | -0.448 | Home | 2 | No | 99.8 | 115.6 |
| Charlotte Hornets | Indiana Pacers | Dec 28 | +185 | 42.7% | 35.1% | +7.6 | +21.7% | +0.762 | Away | 2 | No | 104.1 | 116.9 |
| Indiana Pacers | Charlotte Hornets | Dec 28 | -225 | 57.3% | 69.2% | -11.9 | -17.2% | -0.387 | Home | 1 | No | 106.7 | 114.3 |
| Detroit Pistons | Chicago Bulls | Dec 28 | +210 | 39.5% | 32.3% | +7.2 | +22.3% | +0.720 | Away | 1 | No | 101.5 | 117.8 |
| Chicago Bulls | Detroit Pistons | Dec 28 | -255 | 60.5% | 71.8% | -11.3 | -15.7% | -0.401 | Home | 2 | No | 98.9 | 113.2 |
| Portland Trail Blaze... | Utah Jazz | Dec 28 | +165 | 41.2% | 37.7% | +3.5 | +9.3% | +0.153 | Away | 1 | Yes | 103.2 | 119.1 |
| Utah Jazz | Portland Trail Blaze... | Dec 28 | -200 | 58.8% | 66.7% | -7.9 | -11.8% | -0.236 | Home | 2 | No | 100.4 | 115.8 |
| San Antonio Spurs | Golden State Warrior... | Dec 28 | +145 | 43.8% | 40.8% | +3.0 | +7.4% | +0.107 | Away | 1 | No | 105.6 | 116.4 |
| Golden State Warrior... | San Antonio Spurs | Dec 28 | -175 | 56.2% | 63.6% | -7.4 | -11.6% | -0.203 | Home | 2 | No | 102.8 | 112.9 |
Scroll horizontally to view all columns. Hover over truncated values to see full content.
| Date (ET) | Matchup | Best Side | Price | Model Win% | Implied% | Edge (pp) | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 7:00 PM | Washington Wizards@ Atlanta Hawks | Washington Wizards | +230 | 38.1% | 30.3% | +7.8 | +25.8% |
| Dec 28, 7:30 PM | Charlotte Hornets@ Indiana Pacers | Charlotte Hornets | +185 | 42.7% | 35.1% | +7.6 | +21.7% |
| Dec 28, 8:00 PM | Detroit Pistons@ Chicago Bulls | Detroit Pistons | +210 | 39.5% | 32.3% | +7.2 | +22.3% |
| Dec 28, 9:00 PM | Portland Trail Blazers@ Utah Jazz | Portland Trail Blazers | +165 | 41.2% | 37.7% | +3.5 | +9.3% |
| Dec 28, 10:00 PM | San Antonio Spurs@ Golden State Warriors | San Antonio Spurs | +145 | 43.8% | 40.8% | +3.0 | +7.4% |
| Dec 29, 6:00 PM | Brooklyn Nets@ Philadelphia 76ers | Brooklyn Nets | +125 | 45.5% | 44.4% | +1.1 | +2.5% |
| Dec 29, 7:00 PM | Orlando Magic@ Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | +135 | 43.2% | 42.6% | +0.6 | +1.4% |
Daily Moneyline Model Signal Card
Picks organized by signal strength. Higher edge values indicate greater model divergence from market prices.
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Strong Model Value Signals
High-variance outcome with significant model edge. Market may be undervaluing recent defensive improvements.
Model identifies home court advantage not fully priced in. Key player availability confirmed.
Pace and style matchup favors underdog. Historical head-to-head suggests closer contest.
⭐⭐⭐ Moderate Model Value Signals
Modest edge with lower variance. Market pricing appears efficient but model sees slight value.
Young roster showing improvement. Model factors in recent form not yet reflected in lines.
⭐⭐ Thin Model Value Signals (Low Priority)
Minimal edge. Market pricing is largely efficient. Included for completeness only.
Very thin edge. Consider this informational rather than actionable.
The model does not identify positive expected value on these sides at current market prices. Informational only—not recommendations to bet the opposite side.
Important Disclosure
All content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. EVZebra does not provide betting advice, wagering instructions, or financial guarantees. Sports outcomes are uncertain, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users are solely responsible for their own decisions and actions. Please gamble responsibly.
Understanding the Metrics
The probability of winning estimated by our statistical model, based on historical data, team performance, and matchup factors.
The probability implied by the current market price (moneyline). Calculated by converting odds to a percentage.
The difference between Model Win% and Implied%, measured in percentage points. Positive edge indicates the model sees more value than the market price suggests.
The theoretical return on investment if this bet were repeated many times. Positive EV suggests long-term profitability under the model's assumptions.
Educational Purpose Only
This example card demonstrates how EVZebra presents model vs market analysis. All metrics are for educational purposes to help you understand expected value concepts. This is not betting advice, and we make no guarantees about accuracy or outcomes. Sports results are uncertain, and models are imperfect tools.